Every quarter we analyze all the top independently tested AVMs and compile the results. Click on this GIF to see the top AVM in each county for each quarter. As you watch the quarters change, you can see that the colors representing the top honors change frequently.
The main point is how frequently AVM performance changes. That should be no surprise, since market conditions change, and AVM’s have different strengths and tendencies. In Q3, AVMetrics independently tested 24 models; however, the GIF only highlights the 13 models that ranked in the top position of the MPTs. At least 11 AVMs shouldn’t be anyone’s first choice ANYWHERE, but they still have customers, presumably customers who don’t know the real performance of their AVMs. AVM Vendors and resellers are not Independent referees.
Independent testing is the only way to know how AVMs perform. This past quarter we saw several models retire while whole new models were introduced. Every model is constantly being improved as builders add new data feeds and use new techniques to get better results (with respect to new techniques, over at the AVMNews, we curate articles about AVMs, and we highlight several dozen new research articles about AVMs every year).
Q3 Change Highlights- Quarterly Trends Across the Coast
As ever, if you watch a part of the map, you’ll see several changes. But, in Q3, as markets stabilized at higher interest rate levels, we saw a changing of the guard. Here are some places to watch:
- In the Golden State, one of the highest priority counties in state has a new king, Los Angeles. Inyo, Imperial, King, and Tulare counties also changes hands (just to name a few).
- Several less-populated states had almost wholesale changes, such as the Dakotas, Alaksa, Montana, Wyoming, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Kansas.
- In the Sunshine State models were able to value several smaller counties that were not captured by models in Q2 including Collier, Columbia, Okeechobee, Suwannee, and Union.
Takeaways
Things change – a lot. Don’t rely on the results from last year or earlier this year. Heck, you can’t even trust last quarter! Often, 3 months’ of data are required to get a large enough sample in smaller regions, but we can slice it every way imaginable.
Use more than one AVM. It’s not obvious from a map showing just one AVM in each county, but if you think about what’s going on to produce these results, you’ll realize that AVMs have different strengths and there are a lot of them climbing all over each other to get to the top of the ranking. So, when you’re valuing a particular property, you just don’t know if it will be a good candidate for even the best AVM. When that AVM produces a result with low confidence, there’s a very good chance that another AVM will produce a reasonable estimate.
Use the right AVM for each use case and keep testing, because things change a lot and often.